Fear of negative evaluation as a longitudinal mediator between maternal psychological control and social avoidance in adolescents: A cross-lagged panel model

Although perceived maternal psychological control (pMPC) and fear of negative evaluation (FNE) are both well-established correlates of social anxiety, their longitudinal interplay with social avoidance remains poorly understood. The present study examined the temporal associations between pMPC, FNE, and social avoidance in a three-wave longitudinal design Participants were 608 adolescents aged 10–16 years (M age = 12.89) who completed self-report measures at three time points over six months. Cross-lagged panel models with latent variables were estimated, and multigroup analyses tested moderation by age and sex. Across the full sample, pMPC predicted subsequent increases in FNE (T1 → T2: β = 0.04, p < .001), which in turn predicted higher levels of social avoidance (T2 → T3: β = 0.10, p < .001). The indirect effect of pMPC on avoidance via FNE was significant ( p = .001), whereas the direct path from pMPC to avoidance was not significant, supporting a full mediation model suggesting an indirect prospective pathway. Bidirectional associations between FNE and avoidance further indicated a self-reinforcing anxiety process. Importantly, these associations were not uniform across groups. The mediating pathway was significant only among boys, suggesting potential sex-specific transactional dynamics. This study is the first to longitudinally demonstrate that FNE represents a prospective pathway, though modest in effect size, linking pMPC to anxious social avoidance in youth. The findings highlight the importance of considering cognitive mediators and child characteristics when examining family influences on adolescent social anxiety. • Perceived maternal control predicts avoidance via fear of negative evaluation. • Fear of negative evaluation and social avoidance form a bidirectional loop. • Mediation effects were significant only for boys. • Cross-lagged models tested temporal links in 608 adolescents. • Findings support an indirect prospective pathway linking maternal control to adolescent social avoidance.