Replication package for: Response Conductance and Decision Distance — A Cross-Domain Theory of Endpoint Loss

Replication package for the SSRN working paper … (Tanaka 2026, SSRN abstract_id=6741738). Endpoint loss arises when a system's actions track signals other than the ones that capture what its principals or beneficiaries value. We introduce Response Conductance Theory (RCT) as a response-conversion framework: information becomes system-relevant only when it changes action, and harm depends on the joint presence of optimization pressure M, proxy-endpoint divergence DPE, proxy response dominance $K = [\log(G_P/G_E)]+$, weak guardrails $H_d$, and exposure $V_d$, combined through a domain-specific aggregation function $L{E,d} = \phi_d(M, D_{PE}, K, H_d, V_d)$. Decision Distance Theory (DDT) is the institutional special case, where GE depends on price, exit, and voice, GP on intermediary objectives, and the removal test identifies whether an entity raises GE/GP. We test the framework at three layers. Institutional scoreboard: across 22 domain-outcome pairs spanning six independent families, removal-test-satisfying proxies predicted the correct direction in 13 of 13 preregistered tests; within-country panel evidence in tax administration (β=&minus;0.138), healthcare (β=+0.157), and judicial enforcement (β=+0.086, rising to +0.190 at lag 5) confirms direction; orthogonal-shock tests (24/24) show that GDP-controlled estimates over-attenuate. Catalog tests: blinded rater replications on 27 institutional and 15 AI alignment cases reject any universal multiplicative score R=M⋅DPE⋅K, but reject it in different ways---institutional severity is dominated by DPE (pooled LOO R2=0.97); AI severity is dominated by M (pooled LOO R2=0.90). Boundary tests: the universal-curve form is rejected; cross-country GE/GP averages do not predict β; expert protocols for conductance ratios fail (three attempts, all ρ<0.2); the discriminator cell required to distinguish plain Goodhart from RCT is empty in both catalogs. The catalog evidence supports a universal component grammar---each component is jointly relevant across domains---but rejects a fixed multiplicative aggregation; identification of ϕd is reserved for decision-level data where each component can be measured independently of realized loss. Systems optimize what they can hear.

Authors

Publication Details

Journal
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Published
2026-05-10
DOI
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20103072
Primary Topic
Advanced Causal Inference Techniques
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
0.00
Controls
|||
ALL TIME
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
article

Replication package for: Response Conductance and Decision Distance — A Cross-Domain Theory of Endpoint Loss

Yuichiro Tanaka
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Advanced Causal Inference Techniques
article

Replication package for: Response Conductance and Decision Distance — A Cross-Domain Theory of Endpoint Loss

Yuichiro Tanaka
article en

Abstract

Replication package for the SSRN working paper … (Tanaka 2026, SSRN abstract_id=6741738). Endpoint loss arises when a system's actions track signals other than the ones that capture what its principals or beneficiaries value. We introduce Response Conductance Theory (RCT) as a response-conversion framework: information becomes system-relevant only when it changes action, and harm depends on the joint presence of optimization pressure M, proxy-endpoint divergence DPE, proxy response dominance $K = [\log(G_P/G_E)]+$, weak guardrails $H_d$, and exposure $V_d$, combined through a domain-specific aggregation function $L{E,d} = \phi_d(M, D_{PE}, K, H_d, V_d)$. Decision Distance Theory (DDT) is the institutional special case, where GE depends on price, exit, and voice, GP on intermediary objectives, and the removal test identifies whether an entity raises GE/GP. We test the framework at three layers. Institutional scoreboard: across 22 domain-outcome pairs spanning six independent families, removal-test-satisfying proxies predicted the correct direction in 13 of 13 preregistered tests; within-country panel evidence in tax administration (β=&minus;0.138), healthcare (β=+0.157), and judicial enforcement (β=+0.086, rising to +0.190 at lag 5) confirms direction; orthogonal-shock tests (24/24) show that GDP-controlled estimates over-attenuate. Catalog tests: blinded rater replications on 27 institutional and 15 AI alignment cases reject any universal multiplicative score R=M⋅DPE⋅K, but reject it in different ways---institutional severity is dominated by DPE (pooled LOO R2=0.97); AI severity is dominated by M (pooled LOO R2=0.90). Boundary tests: the universal-curve form is rejected; cross-country GE/GP averages do not predict β; expert protocols for conductance ratios fail (three attempts, all ρ<0.2); the discriminator cell required to distinguish plain Goodhart from RCT is empty in both catalogs. The catalog evidence supports a universal component grammar---each component is jointly relevant across domains---but rejects a fixed multiplicative aggregation; identification of ϕd is reserved for decision-level data where each component can be measured independently of realized loss. Systems optimize what they can hear.

Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Decent work and economic growth
Openalex Percentile: Top 3%
Advanced Causal Inference Techniques
AI Navigator

Ask Laika to Summarize, Analyze, and Connect papers live on the map.

Summarize Papers & Methodologies

Extract key findings, datasets, and comparative methods across publications.

Benchmark Rankings & Visual Analytics

Rank top research institutions, authors, funders, topics, and journals by Field-Weighted Citation Impact (FWCI) and paper volume with instant charts.

Connect Distant Disciplines

Bridge topological clusters on the map to find hidden collaborative intersections.

Replication package for: Response Conductance and Decision Distance — A Cross-Domain Theory of Endpoint Loss — Yuichiro Tanaka · Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research) (2026) | TGRS Research Map | TGRS