Rules of Evidence, Efficiency Claims, and Local Government Amalgamation

Scholars have expressed frustration that public policy formulation sometimes proceeds with optimism that lies in stark contrast to the evaluation literature. We present theoretical insights from the rules of evidence that cast greater light on why this might be so. We also conduct novel sophisticated empirical analysis – based on a natural experiment in New South Wales, Australia – to better measure the efficiency outcomes at the heart of most amalgamation proposals. We conclude with our thoughts on the important normative measures, derived from rules of evidence, that might be operationalised to avoid injustice and enhance accountability in the future.