Determinants of crop diversification and the role of agricultural technology and institutional enablers in millet-based tribal farming systems

Abstract In tribal and climate-vulnerable regions, limited access to agricultural technologies and resource constraints often hinder crop diversification, despite its recognised role in enhancing sustainability, resilience, and food security. While technology adoption is known to influence farm diversification, evidence specific to millet-based systems in India’s tribal areas remains scarce. This study examines the determinants of crop diversification and the role of agricultural technology adoption among millet farmers in Koraput district, Odisha, a climate-sensitive and predominantly rainfed tribal region. Using primary data from 500 farm households, two composite indices were constructed: the crop diversification index (CDI), derived from Simpson’s index, and the agricultural technology intensity index (ATII), capturing physical, chemical, and strategic mechanisation dimensions. A fractional heteroscedastic probit model was applied, controlling for socio-economic and institutional factors. Results indicate that ATII has a statistically significant and positive association with CDI. Operational landholding size and age are also positively related to diversification, although their effects are comparatively modest. The heteroscedastic specification further shows that technology adoption, family size, and institutional barriers influence the variability of diversification outcomes, highlighting the role of unobserved heterogeneity. Moreover, the instrumental variable diagnostics demonstrate that correcting for endogeneity strengthens the estimated causal impact of ATII on CDI. Findings emphasise the need for promoting location-specific technologies, strengthening extension services, and enhancing targeted institutional support to scale up diversification and enhance climate resilience in millet-based farming systems.