Heat Wave and Mortality Burden of Chronic Kidney Disease: Current Assessment and Future Projection in China.

Objective: Although many studies have examined temperature-related non-accidental mortality, the impact of heat waves on the mortality burden of chronic kidney disease (CKD) remains poorly understood. This study aimed to assess the CKD mortality burden associated with heat waves in China under global warming. Methods: Mortality data on CKD from 2,790 counties/districts in China from 2004 to 2022 were collected from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention; meteorological data for the same period were obtained from the fifth-generation European Reanalysis Land dataset. A time-stratified case-crossover design combined with a distributed lag nonlinear model was used to examine the association between heat waves and CKD mortality. Future CKD mortality burdens attributable to heat waves under climate change and future population scenarios were projected. Results: : 1.24% to 4.41%). Conclusion: This nationwide study demonstrated that exposure to heat waves significantly increased the mortality risk of CKD, and that women, older individuals, and people in mesic/cold regions are more susceptible to heat waves. Global warming will significantly increase the future CKD mortality burden attributed to heat waves, particularly in southeastern China. Our findings emphasize the need to address CKD in the context of ongoing climate change.