Projections of Changes in Glacier Area and Volume in the Xinjiang Region, northwestern China, Based on CGI-XJ2020

Glaciers represent a key freshwater source, and their changes have far-reaching impacts on regional water availability and hydrological cycle. Using the CGI-XJ2020 inventory as input, the evolution of glacier area and volume in Xinjiang between 2020 and 2100 is simulated with OGGM(the Open Global Glacier Model), which is driven by climate projections from six CMIP6 general circulation models under three SSP emission scenarios. We find sustained glacier retreat in Xinjiang, and the estimated glacier volume loss rates are higher than the global average but lower than those reported for Central Asia. By 2100, our simulations indicate substantial glacier loss relative to 2020. In the SSP2-4.5 scenario, the glacierized area decreases by 39.16%, rising to 52.35% in SSP3-7.0 and 63.30% in SSP5-8.5. The corresponding reductions in glacier volume are 49.92%, 64.01% and 73.25%, respectively. Smaller glaciers retreat more rapidly, and overall glacier shrinkage is faster in northern Xinjiang than in the south, while continued warming is expected to further intensify glacier melt in the southern regions. Glacier changes also differ markedly among mountain ranges, with retreat most pronounced in the Sawuer Mountains, whereas glaciers in the Pamir shrink comparatively slowly. At the basin scale, our simulations show that glaciers in four basins, including the Khovd River basin, have completely disappeared by 2100. In contrast, the Yarkant River basin, which hosts the largest glacier population, still retains about 74.46% (SSP2-4.5), 58.48% (SSP3-7.0) and 44.11% (SSP5-8.5) of its 2020 glacier area.