Trading in disorder: the crisis of globalization and the future of trade policy

Abstract International trade is undergoing a period of profound upheaval. Politicians and observers have been trying to identify a paradigm that can capture the new disorder. This essay argues that no single paradigm is emerging; instead, trade policies are changing along several dimensions simultaneously. We can make sense of the new complexity by tracing those changes along four dimensions: the purposes for which governments regulate trade, the partners with whom they want businesses to trade, the products and services that they want to see traded, and the tools that they use to regulate trade. An analysis along these lines shows that competing narratives about globalization are motivating governments to embrace a multipurpose trade policy; to take a much more selective approach to their trading partners; to develop trade policies that are tailored to specific products, services, and supply chains; and to employ a much wider range of tools to shape supply chains than they did even a decade ago.