Spatiotemporal analysis of land use and land cover change and environmental impacts in Akure Metropolis Nigeria

Urban expansion has increasingly transformed land use/land cover (LULC) patterns in rapidly growing cities of sub-Saharan Africa, with significant environmental consequences. This study investigated the spatio-temporal dynamics of LULC in Akure Metropolis, Ondo State, Nigeria, using multi-temporal Landsat images from 1991, 2002, 2015, and 2020. Supervised classification based on the Maximum Likelihood algorithm was employed to map major LULC classes, while environmental changes were assessed using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Normalized Difference Built-up Index (NDBI), Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI), and Land Surface Temperature (LST). Future land use scenarios were simulated for 2025 and 2050 using the Land Change Modeler. The results show that built-up areas expanded from approximately 14% in 1991 to 38% in 2020, largely replacing vegetation cover, which declined by about 32% over the same period. NDVI values decreased markedly, indicating progressive vegetation loss, while NDBI and LST increased, reflecting intensifying urban development and surface warming. Correlation analysis revealed a strong negative relationship between NDVI and LST (r = − 0.71) and a positive association between NDBI and LST (r = 0.76), confirming the thermal impacts of urban expansion. Model projections indicate that built-up land may reach approximately 46% by 2025 and 58% by 2050 if current trends continue. Overall, the study demonstrates that integrated remote sensing, environmental indices, and predictive modelling effectively capture urban growth patterns and their environmental consequences. The findings provide critical evidence to inform sustainable urban planning, climate-resilient development, and ecosystem conservation in rapidly urbanizing Nigerian cities.