Forecasting Cognitive Performance from Sleep and Work Patterns

This paper presents a mathematical model to quantify cognitive performance as a function of age, individual sleep history, and waking work/break profiles. Cognitive performance is normalized to an individual's maximum daily potential. The model allows the inclusion of polyphasic sleep, typically a core night's rest supplemented by one or more brief naps It is organized into three main sections. The first two define the model equations and compare model generated predictions with results reported in a broad range of published studies addressing sleep deprivation, napping, sleep recovery, work breaks, and age- related changes in fluid intelligence. The third section applies the model to a variety of real-world scenarios and, where appropriate, suggest behavioral modifications to improve cognitive performance. Results suggest potential applications in optimizing individual sleep/work schedules and enhancing productivity in educational and workplace environments. The model quantifies the productivity "price" impact of inadequate sleep habits and work breaks.