Stepping Up or Stepping Out? Sustainable Livelihood Resilience, Heterogeneous Strategies and Poverty Alleviation Among Retired Fishermen in the Yangtze River Basin

ABSTRACT The ‘Ten‐Year Fishing Ban’ policy in the Yangtze River Basin has compelled over 230,000 fishermen to cease fishing and transition to alternative livelihoods, making their post‐ban livelihood development critical to the policy's long‐term effectiveness. Drawing on household survey data from Hubei and Hunan provinces—which account for nearly 40% of the affected fishing population—this study investigates the relationship between sustainable livelihood resilience and low‐income poverty among retired fishermen. Integrating resilience theory with the Sustainable Livelihoods Approach (SLA), we develop a conceptual framework and construct a quantitative indicator system to measure livelihood resilience across three dimensions: buffering, self‐organizing and learning capacities. Fishermen's livelihood behaviours are classified into ‘stepping up’ (agriculture‐oriented) and ‘stepping out’ (non‐agriculture‐oriented) strategies. Using ordered logistic regression combined with Interpretive Structural Modelling (ISM) and MICMAC analysis, we examine the heterogeneous effects of livelihood resilience on poverty alleviation outcomes. Results show that livelihood resilience significantly influences poverty alleviation for both strategies, with patterns contingent on endowment characteristics. These findings remain robust after addressing endogeneity through instrumental variable estimation. Indicators of self‐organizing and learning capacities exhibit higher marginal effects for the stepping‐up strategy, while stepping‐up livelihoods rely more on natural and human capital, and stepping‐out livelihoods depend more on financial and social capital. Twelve influencing factors are identified across three hierarchical levels: For the stepping‐up strategy, health status and natural resource access serve as deep‐rooted drivers; for the stepping‐out strategy, educational attainment and financial capital constitute deep‐rooted dependency factors. ISM‐MICMAC analysis further reveals that poverty alleviation arises from the synergistic configuration of ability, opportunity and motivation rather than any single factor in isolation. This study offers an integrated analytical framework linking resilience dimensions, livelihood capital and strategy typology, combining causal inference with structural analysis to inform tiered policy interventions for supporting fishermen's occupational transition.