Urban Demographic Pressure and Access to Clean Cooking Technologies in Sub‐Saharan Africa: Evidence From a Nonlinear Panel Analysis

ABSTRACT This study examines the structural effects of urban population growth on access to clean cooking fuels and technologies across 22 Sub‐Saharan African countries from 2000 to 2019. Using panel data from the World Bank's World Development Indicators, we analyze socio‐economic, demographic, and technological drivers, including GDP per capita, foreign direct investment, remittances, and digitalization. During the period, urban population growth averaged 2.81% annually, while access to clean cooking remained low at 22.68% on average. We apply nonlinear dynamic panel methods including fixed effects System GMM and the Pooled Mean Group ARDL approach to estimate short‐run and long‐run relationships while addressing heterogeneity, endogeneity, and persistence. Results consistently show that rapid urban population growth significantly reduces access to clean cooking technologies with a nonlinear pattern where the negative impact increases at higher growth rates. The fixed effects model indicates a strong negative coefficient β = −8.997, p < 0.01 and the squared term confirms nonlinearity. Long run PMG ARDL results show an even stronger effect β = −29.41, p < 0.01 suggesting persistent structural pressure. GDP per capita partially offsets these effects while remittances and digitalization show weaker and less stable influences. The study provides new evidence of a nonlinear demographic constraint on clean cooking access in Sub‐Saharan Africa and highlights the need to integrate rapid urbanization into energy planning and policy design for inclusive and sustainable transitions. These findings underscore the importance of coordinated urban energy policy responses across the region.