Towards High-Accuracy Athletic Injury Predictions Using a First-Principles Modelling Approach: Theory to (Future) Practice

, the probability of an athletic injury occurring can be appropriately quantified. However, to offer practical utility for the prevention of athletic injuries in real-world settings, athletic injury predictions must provide sufficient windows for intervention. For injuries involving sudden unanticipated loads that exceed the possible physiological ranges of tissue strength, this method of athletic injury risk assessment may be of little value, as there is no window of opportunity for intervention. In scenarios where future loads experienced by an athlete can be estimated, tissue damage accumulates over time, or tissue load and strength values converge over time, actualising this approach by obtaining accurate estimations of these variables is likely crucial for achieving high-accuracy athletic injury predictions that offer specific data-driven windows for intervention.

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Publication Details

Journal
Sports Medicine
Published
2026-05-09
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/s40279-026-02435-2
Primary Topic
Sports injuries and prevention
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
0.00

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article

Towards High-Accuracy Athletic Injury Predictions Using a First-Principles Modelling Approach: Theory to (Future) Practice

Franco M. Impellizzeri, Dean L. Norris, Judd T. Kalkhoven, W. Brent Edwards
Sports Medicine
Sports injuries and prevention
article

Towards High-Accuracy Athletic Injury Predictions Using a First-Principles Modelling Approach: Theory to (Future) Practice

Franco M. Impellizzeri, Dean L. Norris, Judd T. Kalkhoven, W. Brent Edwards
article en

Abstract

, the probability of an athletic injury occurring can be appropriately quantified. However, to offer practical utility for the prevention of athletic injuries in real-world settings, athletic injury predictions must provide sufficient windows for intervention. For injuries involving sudden unanticipated loads that exceed the possible physiological ranges of tissue strength, this method of athletic injury risk assessment may be of little value, as there is no window of opportunity for intervention. In scenarios where future loads experienced by an athlete can be estimated, tissue damage accumulates over time, or tissue load and strength values converge over time, actualising this approach by obtaining accurate estimations of these variables is likely crucial for achieving high-accuracy athletic injury predictions that offer specific data-driven windows for intervention.

Sports Medicine
University of Technology Sydney (AU), Camden and Campbelltown Hospitals (AU), University of Calgary (CA)
Western Sydney University
Openalex Percentile: Top 5%
Sports injuries and prevention
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