Hazard driven debris flow simulation and risk evaluation in the Karakorum Mountain ranges, Northern Pakistan

Northern Pakistan is highly susceptible to debris flows due to its complex geomorphic structure, steep topography, climate change, glaciation, monsoonal rainfall, active seismicity, deforestation, and human activities. Despite this, high-resolution, quantitative assessments of debris flow hazards are limited, constraining effective disaster risk management. This study aims to model a representative debris flow event in the Ghizer District to predict potential deposition areas and support emergency preparedness and sustainable land-use planning in this hazard-prone region. High-resolution Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV)-derived topographic data were integrated with the Rapid Mass Movement Simulation (RAMMS-DF) model to simulate debris flow runout for three release scenarios, representing distinct and combined initiation zones. Satellite images and field validation were used to delineate release and erosion zones, while vulnerability and risk were assessed by mapping exposed elements including 210 buildings and a population of 1,500 and applying spatial multi-criteria analysis within a Geographic Information System (GIS) framework. The numerical simulation for the most critical event, Scenario 3 (representing simultaneous dual-source initiation), yielded the highest magnitude results with a total flow volume of 193,717 m³, a peak flow height of 12.96 m, and a maximum impact pressure of 992.28 kPa. Vulnerability mapping identified infrastructure and agricultural land as the most exposed. Risk assessment showed that the combined scenario posed the greatest threat to local assets and communities. The study demonstrates that debris flow dynamics in high-mountain environments are non-linearly sensitive to initial release volumes and the interaction between multiple flow sources. Topographic controls such as channel confinement and slope variations are the primary drivers of flow intensity and energy dissipation. This research establishes a replicable, data-driven framework for quantitative risk assessment in data-limited mountainous regions. The resulting high-resolution hazard and risk maps provide a scientific basis for defining land-use restrictions, prioritizing slope stabilization, and guiding the placement of emergency infrastructure to support disaster-resilient development in northern Pakistan.