Quantitative Analysis of Performance Determinants in Elite Women's Handball: Goal Difference as a Predictor of Success

The 24th IHF Women's Junior U20 World Championship, which took place in Skopje, North Macedonia, showed and signified another step in the progress of the sport of international handball regarding talent and strategy. This study quantitatively analyzed team performance in the 2024 IHF Women's Junior U20 World Championship using match data from 32 national teams. This study analysed the statistical data of the tournament to measure its indexed performance and how it is converted to success among teams. The KPIs of this study are Goals For (GF), Goals Against (GA), Goal Difference (GD), and Points (Pts), which have undergone correlation, trend, and comparative analyses. Pearson correlation and linear trend analysis were used to identify the patterns in offense and defense across different stages of the games in the competition. GD was the most significant predictor of success, showing a strong negative correlation (-0.89) with final rankings. Top-performing teams like France and Hungary register balanced growth in offensive and defensive metrics, where the GD trend of France (+7.4) exemplifies their consistency. In contrast, lower-ranked teams like Chile and the USA suffered high GAs and a poor GD (-64), displaying considerable defensive weakness. In a comparative analysis, top teams scored an average of 104.25 GF and 65.25 GA, and the bottom teams scored an average of 47.25 GF, and 111.25 GA. Results indicated GD as the strongest success predictor (r = -0.89), reinforcing the importance of a balanced offensive and defensive approach. Teams should maintain a balanced offensive and defensive strategy; however, if success at the elite level is to be kept over time. Some of the recommendations include improving defensive solidity and offensive efficiency to fill the gaps in comparative performance.