Real-world medical and long-term care service utilization patterns among older adults with complex needs in China: a latent class analysis

BACKGROUND: Older adults with complex needs (CN), commonly defined as the coexistence of multiple chronic conditions and functional limitations, are associated with high levels of medical and long-term care (LTC) utilization. However, evidence on real-world patterns of joint medical and LTC service use among this population in China remains limited. METHODS: This cross-sectional study utilized data from 177,807 individuals aged ≥ 60 years who underwent LTC insurance assessment in Shanghai between January and May 2023. CN was defined as having three or more chronic conditions with at least one limitation in activities of daily living. Within an integrated care framework, latent class analysis (LCA) was applied to identify patterns of medical and LTC service utilization based on 10 indicators informed by the Andersen Behavioral Model of Health Services Use. Multinomial logistic regression was used to examine the association between CN status and class membership, adjusting for demographic, socioeconomic, and health-related factors. RESULTS: Older adults with CN (n = 42,277) differed significantly from those without CN (n = 135,530) across demographic, socioeconomic, health status, and service utilization. Six latent classes of medical and LTC service utilization were identified: Low Medical & Low Care, Moderate Medical & Low Care, High Medical & All Care, High Medical & Informal Care, High Medical & Formal Care, and High Inpatient & Formal Care. Compared to non-CN individuals, CN individuals had higher probabilities of belonging to high-utilization classes, particularly High Medical & All Care, High Medical & Informal Care, and High Medical & Formal Care classes, with the Low Medical & Low Care Class as the reference. These associations remained significant after adjusting for covariates. CONCLUSIONS: Older adults with CN in China showed heterogeneity in patterns of medical and LTC service utilization and were more frequently represented in intensive and multi-sector service use profiles. Early identification of CN individuals and the development of risk-stratified integrated care models may help inform more coordinated and people-centered service delivery approaches.