Heterogeneous Effects of Weather Shocks and Crop Diversification on Household Food Security. A Gender Dimension

ABSTRACT About one‐quarter of the global population, that is, approximately 1.8 billion people, with 90% in low‐ and middle‐income countries, face substantial weather‐related risks. This paper studies how weather shocks are associated with crop diversification and household food security in Nigeria, with a focus on gendered plot management. We merge historical climate data with the World Bank's Living Standards Measurement Study—Integrated Surveys on Agriculture (LSMS‐ISA) to construct rainfall anomaly (z‐score) and temperature extreme (Killing Degree Days, KDD) measures, household crop diversification, and household food security indicators. Using a Two‐Way Fixed Effects (TWFE) model, we find that both rainfall shocks and extreme temperatures are negatively associated with household dietary diversity, but the relationship is mixed for other food security outcomes. Crop diversification is positively associated with food security under high temperature exposure, but the relationship is mixed under rainfall anomalies. The gender composition of household plot managers does not show a statistically robust moderating role in the aggregate; however, gender differences emerge at certain thresholds of weather exposure. The results highlight the heterogeneity in the crop diversification—food security relationship across weather dimensions.