Architectural Evaluation of Settlement Morphologies for Self-Sufficient Temporary Shelters in Hot-Arid Regions

Temporary shelter settlements in hot arid regions frequently endure far beyond their intended lifespan, yet their spatial and environmental performance remains weakly theorized in architectural research. Existing studies predominantly address the design of individual temporary shelter units (TSUs), with limited attention to how settlement-scale morphology shapes thermal comfort, infrastructural efficiency, and socio-spatial cohesion. To address this gap, this study develops a settlement-level evaluation framework to compare two self-sufficient configurations suited to Jordan's desert context: a Dispersed Modular Settlement and a Clustered Compact Settlement. The framework adapts established TSU performance indicators to the settlement scale and applies expert-based weighting through the Analytical Hierarchy Process. Sixteen specialists in architecture, engineering, and planning validated the criteria and completed pairwise comparisons. Model performance was assessed using weighted composite scoring, z-score normalization, inter-criteria correlation analysis, confidence interval estimation, and sensitivity testing. The results demonstrate a statistically robust advantage for the Clustered Compact Settlement across sustainability, technical, and social dimensions. This configuration achieves superior thermal moderation, more efficient renewable energy and utility integration, reduced infrastructural redundancy, and enhanced opportunities for communal interaction. Non-overlapping 95 percent confidence intervals and stable outcomes under ±10 percent weighting variations confirm result reliability. By integrating desert microclimate principles with multi-criteria decision analysis, this study offers a transferable, evidence-based framework for designing resilient, sustainable, and self-sufficient temporary settlements in arid environments.