Junior hockey to the NHL – an investigation of draft year variables

This research aims to examine how junior and collegiate career pathways and performance indicators influence key outcomes for ice-hockey players, mainly, draft position, scoring, and their total career earnings within the league. The study focuses on 11 draft classes between 2009 and 2019 drawn from major development leagues, including the CHL (OHL/QMJHL/WHL), CJHL (OJHL, BCHL), NCAA (U.S. college), US Development (USNDTP, USHL, NAHL), as well as European junior and pro leagues (SHL, Liiga). Using OLS for draft position, and OLS/quantile regressions for career earnings (log-transformed to correct skewness) and performance measured in NHL points, the study will estimate how pathway, junior performance metrics (points-per-game) and demographics (height, weight, position) predict long-term professional success. The findings aim to provide actionable insights for players, families, and advisors in selecting development pathways most likely to produce elite career outcomes. Furthermore, the results could provide valuable information to teams and leagues about potential missed value among players. Ice-hockey development systems are increasingly complex, with talented young players facing choices between major junior/tier 1 leagues (CHL/USHL), Junior A/Tier 2 Junior (CJHL, NAHL), U.S. collegiate programs, and European junior and pro systems. These choices may affect not only the likelihood of reaching the NHL but also the position at which a player is drafted and their eventual career earnings. To date, much of the literature on athlete labour markets in hockey has concentrated on salary determination within the NHL (role of performance, draft slot, tenure), but fewer studies examine how the developmental pathway and junior performance metrics translate into longterm professional and financial outcomes. This research aims to address that gap by building an integrated dataset and using rigorous econometric methods to ask: Among players who reach the NHL, how do pathway and junior performance indicators predict draft order, total NHL career earnings and performance measured in points (both in ordinary least squares and across earnings quantiles to capture differences between depth players and stars)?