Impact mechanisms and spatial effects of new quality productive forces on healthcare resource allocation in China

Since the implementation of China's healthcare reform in 2009, healthcare resource allocation has improved, yet significant regional and urban-rural imbalances persist, exacerbated by the misallocation of medical capital and labor. Such inefficiencies hinder service equalization and the "Healthy China 2030" goals. Utilizing panel data from 30 provinces (2010-2021), this study constructs misallocation indices for healthcare capital and labor and employs fixed-effects and spatial Durbin models to examine the impact of novel productivity on resource allocation and its spatial spillover effects. Results show that novel productivity significantly enhances allocation efficiency and reduces misallocation through increased healthcare wages, improved service efficiency, and digitalization. Regionally, labor misallocation improves most in Central areas, while capital misallocation improves most in Eastern areas. However, spatial spillover effects reveal that neighboring regions' productivity growth may exacerbate local misallocation. This study provides theoretical insights and practical recommendations for enhancing healthcare quality, equitable resource distribution, and achieving "Healthy China 2030."