Abstention and Populist Voting: Evidence From the Italian 2018 Election

The 2018 election in Italy produced a highly fragmented outcome with a “tripolar” structure: mainstream forces were sharply weakened, while the Five Star Movement (left-wing) and The League (right-wing), two populist parties with different political agendas but similar anti-establishment postures, captured unprecedented levels of support. This configuration highlights a theoretical tension regarding disaffection towards the voting mechanism: similar underlying grievances can lead to either abstention or support for right- and left-wing populist parties. In 2018, in Italy, these three responses were available simultaneously, a unique case. This article examines the determinants of abstention and populist voting in Italy’s 2018 general election. Using provincial (NUTS 3) data from 2008, 2013, and 2018, we employ a combination of factor and regression analysis to describe the underlying causes of populist voting and abstention. Our results show that abstention was higher in provinces characterized by crime, insecurity, and weak governance, while populist parties thrived in economically fragile areas. This contrasts with the stronger performance of mainstream parties in more prosperous regions. Overall, our findings suggest that both abstention and populist voting reflect enduring socio-territorial inequalities and institutional fragility. This implies that reducing regional disparities and strengthening state capacity are key conditions for addressing persistent patterns of electoral disengagement.