Spatio-Temporal Dynamics and Driving Factors of Coupling Coordination in China’s Innovation–Platform–Commercialization System

Amid the restructuring of the global knowledge economy, the structural imbalance of “high input, low commercialization” and the “valley of death” trap have emerged as core bottlenecks restricting the high-quality development of regional innovation. This study aims to explore the collaborative pathway connecting knowledge production to value creation by constructing a ternary Innovation–Platform–Commercialization (IPC) system, which covers front-end research and development (R&D), mid-end integration, and back-end commercialization. Based on China’s provincial panel data from 2013 to 2023, this paper comprehensively employs the coupling coordination model, spatial disparity analysis, and machine learning methods to quantitatively evaluate the coordinated evolutionary pattern of the system and deconstruct its core driving factors. The results indicate the following: First, the overall coordination of the IPC system has steadily improved, yet it exhibits significant spatial agglomeration and local lock-in risks. Second, the underlying cause of spatial disequilibrium has evolved from an absolute scale gap to cross-regional structural fractures. Third, the current core constraint on system development is no longer front-end R&D investment but rather high-value technology trading barriers and the insufficient empowerment of intermediary networks. Finally, the driving effects of traditional elements such as R&D funds and platform scale significantly diminish or even stagnate after crossing specific thresholds, whereas agile organizational structures exhibit superior potential for coordination empowerment. This research breaks through the limitations of traditional unidirectional linear transfer models, confirming that the constraint logic of regional coordination has substantially shifted from “insufficient macro-resource investment” to “micro-organizational operational friction.” Consequently, it provides a theoretical and decision-making basis for local governments to implement precise governance tailored to regional endowments.