Spatiotemporal Evolution and Coordinated Coupling of Non-Timber Forest-Based Economy and Ecological Carrying Capacity in Changbai Mountain

Against the background of ecological civilization construction and the transformation of state-owned forest regions after the logging ban, balancing economic development with ecological protection has become an important issue in China’s forest areas. The development of the non-timber forest-based economy plays a critical role in advancing high-quality, green economic growth in China and contributes significantly to sustainable resource utilization. This study examines data from key state-owned forests and the natural environment in the Changbai Mountain region of Jilin Province from 2013 to 2023. A comprehensive evaluation model and a coupling coordination model, based on the human–land relationship framework, are employed to assess temporal changes in economic growth quality, ecological environment carrying capacity, and their coupling coordination. The quality of non-timber forest-based economic growth exhibited an overall upward trend. Fusong County, Wangqing County, and Dunhua City consistently maintained high levels, while Helong City experienced the largest decline. The spatial distribution followed a “high center, low periphery” pattern, with the 2015 logging ban serving as a key turning point in promoting ecological transformation. The per capita ecological environment carrying capacity improved across the region, with significant increases in Dunhua, Helong, and Antu Counties. A radial decline from the central to peripheral areas was observed, with the highest values in Wangqing and Antu Counties. The coupling coordination degree between economic growth and ecological environment fluctuated between 0.4 and 0.6. In 2023, Wangqing County reached a state of intermediate coordination (index > 0.7), whereas Linjiang remained in a dysfunctional state (index < 0.5). Spatial clustering of coordination weakened over time, as indicated by Moran’s I values of 0.32, 0.21, and 0.09 in 2013, 2018, and 2023, respectively. These findings provide a quantitative foundation for promoting the coordinated development of human–land systems and guiding high-quality regional growth in forest-based economic zones.