Shaping suburbia: Examining the quantitative relationship between zoning parameters, housing density, and building coverage ratios in American gridiron single-family subdivisions

To balance growing single-family housing demand with the pursuit of compact development goals, the design of single-family subdivisions plays a crucial role. Despite emerging efforts to develop alternative zoning approaches and subdivision optimization methods, a key gap remains in the lack of a systematic understanding of the quantitative relationship between distinct zoning parameters and compact single-family subdivision outcomes, as well as the relative differences inherent in these relationships. In response, this study quantifies these relationships through a five-stage research design, in which building coverage ratio (BCR) and housing density are used to measure single-family subdivision compactness, and a Quasi-Monte Carlo Subdivision Simulator (QMCSS) is developed and calibrated with real-world data to simulate a wide range of single-family subdivision samples. The generated samples and associated compactness measurements are then used to fit both univariable and multivariable models. The results reveal nuanced insights into the relative effects of key zoning parameters across both linear and nonlinear models. For example, parcel width exerts the strongest influence on housing density, while side setbacks contribute most to variations in BCR. Collectively, the findings contribute new quantitative evidence to the literature and shed light on the development of finer-grained, data-informed zoning approaches for promoting compact single-family development in American contexts and comparable regulatory settings.