Safety Risk Calculation and Assessment of Mining Faces Based on Adversarial Interpretive Structural Modeling and the Bayesian Network

To improve risk control at coal mining faces and reduce accident risks, this study first extracts high–frequency risk factors from 171 valid coal mining face accident cases (2020–2023) and integrates synthesis of the literature to establish a 21–factor risk indicator system covering human–machine–environment–management dimensions, and invites 10 senior experts in coal mine safety–covering mining engineering, safety science and engineering, mine ventilation, geological disaster prevention and coal mine safety management–for evaluation. Secondly, a hierarchical structure of factors is developed based on adversarial interpretive structural modeling (AISM), and the driving force and dependence of each factor are analyzed using the matrix impact cross–reference multiplication applied to a classification (MICMAC). A fuzzy Bayesian network (FBN) model is then constructed with the AISM structure as a topological constraint to clarify factor relationships and quantify the risk propagation uncertainty. Finally, an empirical analysis is conducted using the X Coal Mine. The results indicate that the “illegal and irregular organization of production” is the root control factor. The risk probability of the mining face is 86.1%, with “inadequate specialized prevention and control” having a high occurrence probability, and “illegal operation” and “illegal command” showing the most significant probability changes. Sensitivity analysis identifies “inadequate specialized prevention and control” as the most sensitive factor, which, together with the environmental factors, falls into the Level I unacceptable risk category. This research determines risk control priorities and provides a theoretical basis for coal mine safety management.