Examining the urban vitality-carbon emissions paradox in rapidly urbanizing waterfronts: evidence from the Dongjiang River, China

Abstract Waterfront regeneration is critical to sustainable urban development yet often encounters an urban vitality-carbon emissions paradox in which functional activation and densification coincide with rising carbon pressures. This study examines spatial coupling and decoupling between urban vitality and carbon emissions along the Dongjiang waterfront in Dongguan, China. A 20-indicator vitality system covering economic, spatial, social, and environmental dimensions is constructed. Vitality scores derived from entropy-weighted TOPSIS are analyzed against 100-m gridded CO₂ emissions using Global and Local Moran’s I and GeoDetector. The results show three main patterns. First, economic vitality has the strongest positive association with emissions (Moran’s I = 0.530), whereas environmental vitality is negatively associated (Moran’s I = − 0.230), and social vitality is only weakly positive. Second, the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) is the dominant factor shaping emission heterogeneity, indicating a strong ecological buffering effect in which greener riverfront segments are spatially segregated from emission hotspots. Third, the spatial configuration reveals a growth-emissions nexus in the compact western core, zones of structural stagnation, industrial legacy areas with high emissions but low vitality, alongside an ecologically structured low-emission subsystem where continuous blue-green corridors mitigate carbon intensities in highly accessible areas. Building on these findings, an R-Urban framework is used to link cluster types to neighborhood-scale strategies for ecological restoration and spatial optimization in rapidly urbanizing delta waterfronts.