Unpacking the black box: Multiple mechanisms of environmental regulation on carbon emission intensity

To explore the relationship between environmental regulation and carbon emission intensity, this study constructs a panel dataset of 274 Chinese cities at the prefecture level and above from 2011 to 2020, primarily drawing on the China City Statistical Yearbook and the Carbon Emission Accounts and Datasets (CEADs). Employing advanced threshold effect, moderating effect and benchmark regression models, the analysis reveals a "green paradox" associated with environmental regulations. The effectiveness of these regulations is jointly shaped by technological innovation and industrial structure, exhibiting significant regional heterogeneity. Notably, the findings indicate that increased green total factor productivity can mitigate the carbon-emission-promoting impact of environmental regulation. In response, this study recommends enhancing the carbon pricing mechanism and formulating targeted policies to address the risks of the "green paradox," thereby balancing carbon reduction with green economic growth.