The Impact of Logistics Industry Transport Structure Adjustment on Carbon Emissions: A Study Based on Provincial Samples in China

Based on panel data from 30 Chinese provinces (2008–2022), this study employs fixed-effects, spatial econometric, and moderation effect models to analyze how logistics transport structure adjustment affects carbon emissions. The findings reveal that: (1) Carbon emissions from the logistics industry show a fluctuating upward trend, with a spatial pattern of “higher in the south and lower in the north”; economically developed provinces and major transportation hubs exhibit higher emission levels. (2) The increasing share of railway transport has a more pronounced effect on carbon reduction in provinces with higher industrialization levels. (3) Transport restructuring generates negative spatial spillover effects whereas railway substitution reduces emissions both locally and in neighboring regions, though with regional heterogeneity: most effective in eastern China, weaker in western China, and insignificant in central China. These findings support developing differentiated, regionally coordinated low-carbon logistics policies.