Can Agricultural Socialized Services Promote Agricultural Green Total Factor Productivity? Evidence from China

Food security and sustainable agriculture, as components of the Zero Hunger goal (SDG 2) under sustainable development, have garnered significant attention from countries worldwide. Enhancing agricultural green total factor productivity (AGTFP) contributes to the achievement of sustainable development. Agricultural socialized services serve as a key means of boosting AGTFP and realizing sustainable development. Based on data from 1534 counties in China from 2007 to 2023, this study employed methods such as the super-efficiency SBM-GML index, a two-way fixed-effects model, and a moderation model to examine the impact of agricultural socialized services on AGTFP, with a particular focus on the moderating role of land scale management. The findings indicate a nonlinear, inverted U-shaped correlation between agricultural socialized services and AGTFP, driven by both the “quantity” and “quality” aspects of these services. Simultaneously, land scale management significantly moderates this relationship. Specifically, the curve’s inflection point shifts leftward and flattens as land scale management intensifies. Furthermore, agricultural socialized services exhibit greater effectiveness in improving AGTFP in major grain-production areas and low regional fiscal pressure regions. These findings provide valuable insights into sustainable agriculture development in China, offering guidance for other developing nations in similar circumstances.