Unified Probabilistic Evaluation of Gravelly Soil Liquefaction Triggering by Dynamic Cone Penetration Test

Liquefaction in gravelly soils has often been overlooked in the past; recent case histories have shown that it can cause significant damage during major earthquakes. The dynamic cone penetration test (DPT) is a practical tool for evaluating liquefaction potential of gravelly soils. In this study, new DPT-based probabilistic triggering curves for gravelly soils are developed based on a global database reevaluated under a unified framework. The models are formulated within a Bayesian framework, explicitly accounting for input parameter uncertainties, model errors, gravel content (GC), earthquake magnitude (Mw), and effective overburden stress (σvo′). A new magnitude scaling factor (MSF), overburden-pressure correction factor (Kσ), and GC-related correction to the DPT blow counts are derived from the models. Comparative analyses demonstrate that the proposed models provide reliable performance, with Model 1 showing advantages for high GC cases and yielding physically interpretable parameters. These developments enhance the applicability of liquefaction assessments in gravelly soils and support seismic design.