Energy burden implications of air pollution reductions during energy transitions

Abstract This study investigates how air pollution reductions intersect with energy-burdened populations across different US decarbonization pathways. The urgent need for decarbonization arises from the imperative to mitigate climate change and reduce national air pollution levels. However, without deliberate planning for equitable outcomes, existing disparities in the US energy system may be exacerbated. This research addresses this concern by examining PM 2.5 air pollution concentration and associated mortality rates, while also exploring the correlation with household energy costs at the census tract level. We quantify air pollution impacts using PM 2.5 concentrations and report premature mortality as the resulting health outcome, calculated by applying established concentration–response relationships to the modeled changes in PM 2.5 concentrations. We find that rapid carbon reduction models, such as the 1.5 °C pathway and 100% renewable energy by 2035, demonstrate significant air pollution reductions in highly vulnerable communities, achieving near parity in PM 2.5 exposure across energy burden groups before 2030. Conversely, less aggressive scenarios, such as the “100% Renewable Energy by 2050” scenario, show marginal disparities in PM 2.5 levels between high- and low-energy-burdened groups. Additionally, a sensitivity analysis addresses modeling assumptions and the implications of dynamic energy costs across socioeconomic groups. By highlighting the role of decarbonization pathways in minimizing air pollution disparities among socioeconomic groups, this research informs future energy transition policies and makes evident the importance of achieving environmental justice and equitable outcomes for vulnerable populations. Graphical Abstract