Potential impact of increasing physical activity on NCD mortality in the EU: pathways to SDG 3.4.1 by 2030

BACKGROUND: Physical inactivity affects 36.2% of adults in the European Union (EU), contributing substantially to the burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs). The WHO's Global Action Plan on Physical Activity 2018-2030 targets a 15% relative reduction in physical inactivity by 2030, supporting Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 3.4.1 to achieve over 30% reduction in premature NCD mortality. This study estimates the number of averted deaths, premature deaths and cause-specific NCD deaths averted if physical activity targets are achieved across EU countries. METHODS: We applied the WHO Preventable Risk Integrated ModEl using baseline physical activity and body mass index from waves 2 and 3 of the European Health Interview Survey. The counterfactual scenario modelled a 15% increase in metabolic equivalent of task hours/week of moderate-to-vigorous physical activity and a 15% relative reduction in the proportion of adults who are physically inactive across the EU. FINDINGS: Increased physical activity is associated with an estimated 24 178 premature deaths averted by 2030 (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 23 253-25 103), equivalent to 3.3% of premature NCD mortality. Overall, 107 108 deaths (95% UI: 102 479-111 737) across all ages could be prevented, representing 4.7% of total NCD deaths in EU member states. INTERPRETATION: Increasing physical activity alone is unlikely to achieve the SDG 3.4.1 target of reducing premature NCD deaths by 2030. However, when combined with other WHO 'best buy' interventions, such as improved diet and reduced tobacco and alcohol use, this target could be attainable across the EU.

Authors

Institutions

Publication Details

Journal
BMJ Global Health
Published
2026-05-01
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjgh-2025-022998
Primary Topic
Physical Activity and Health
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
0.00
Controls
|||
ALL TIME
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
article

Potential impact of increasing physical activity on NCD mortality in the EU: pathways to SDG 3.4.1 by 2030

Hanno Hoven, Mirza Balaj, Romana Haneef, Carl Michael Baravelli et al.
BMJ Global Health
Physical Activity and Health
article

Potential impact of increasing physical activity on NCD mortality in the EU: pathways to SDG 3.4.1 by 2030

Hanno Hoven, Mirza Balaj, Romana Haneef, Carl Michael Baravelli, Enkeleint A. Mechili, Abdu Nafan Aisul Muhlis, Carlos Alexandre Soares Andrade, Gülcan Tecirli, Mary Economou, Sarah Cuschieri, Brian Lassen, Nour Mahrouseh, Terje Andreas Eikemo, José Chen-Xu, O A Varga, Brigid Unim, Ghenwa Chamouni, Jonila GABRANI, Gabriella Laila Tarek, David Rojas-Rueda, Rafael José Vieira, Jeroen Spijker, Andreea Badache
article en

Abstract

BACKGROUND: Physical inactivity affects 36.2% of adults in the European Union (EU), contributing substantially to the burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs). The WHO's Global Action Plan on Physical Activity 2018-2030 targets a 15% relative reduction in physical inactivity by 2030, supporting Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 3.4.1 to achieve over 30% reduction in premature NCD mortality. This study estimates the number of averted deaths, premature deaths and cause-specific NCD deaths averted if physical activity targets are achieved across EU countries. METHODS: We applied the WHO Preventable Risk Integrated ModEl using baseline physical activity and body mass index from waves 2 and 3 of the European Health Interview Survey. The counterfactual scenario modelled a 15% increase in metabolic equivalent of task hours/week of moderate-to-vigorous physical activity and a 15% relative reduction in the proportion of adults who are physically inactive across the EU. FINDINGS: Increased physical activity is associated with an estimated 24 178 premature deaths averted by 2030 (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 23 253-25 103), equivalent to 3.3% of premature NCD mortality. Overall, 107 108 deaths (95% UI: 102 479-111 737) across all ages could be prevented, representing 4.7% of total NCD deaths in EU member states. INTERPRETATION: Increasing physical activity alone is unlikely to achieve the SDG 3.4.1 target of reducing premature NCD deaths by 2030. However, when combined with other WHO 'best buy' interventions, such as improved diet and reduced tobacco and alcohol use, this target could be attainable across the EU.

BMJ Global HealthVol. 11(5)
European University of Tirana (AL), University of Medicine Tirana (AL), Ministry of Health (TR), University of Debrecen (HU), Norwegian Institute of Public Health (NO), Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (FR), Harvard University (US), University of Lisbon (PT), University of Crete (GR), Colorado School of Public Health (US), Inserm (FR), University of Liège (BE), Universität Hamburg (DE), Cyprus University of Technology (CY), Université Fédérale de Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées (FR), Universidade do Porto (PT), University of Malta (MT), Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NO), Örebro University (SE), Universitat Internacional de Catalunya (ES), Babeș-Bolyai University (RO), University of Vlora "Ismail Qemali" (AL), Maastricht University (NL), University Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf (DE), Centre for Demographic Studies (ES), Decision Sciences (United States) (US), Centre Hospitalier Universitaire de Liège (BE), Centre for Health Technology and Services Research (PT), Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ES), Colorado State University (US), Technical University of Denmark (DK)
Good health and well-being
Openalex Percentile: Top 7%
Physical Activity and Health
DOIOpen Access PDFOpenAlex
AI Navigator

Ask Laika to Summarize, Analyze, and Connect papers live on the map.

Summarize Papers & Methodologies

Extract key findings, datasets, and comparative methods across publications.

Benchmark Rankings & Visual Analytics

Rank top research institutions, authors, funders, topics, and journals by Field-Weighted Citation Impact (FWCI) and paper volume with instant charts.

Connect Distant Disciplines

Bridge topological clusters on the map to find hidden collaborative intersections.