Sensitivity of climate analogues to problem-specific adjustments: a case study

Abstract Climate analogues, which identify present-day locations resembling projected future climates, offer a powerful tool to support adaptation in climate-sensitive sectors. However, many existing applications rely on coarse climate model outputs and raw variables, often overlooking microclimatic variation and sector-specific climate metrics. In this study, we refine the climate analogue approach by proposing problem-specific improvements, consisting in incorporating bioclimatic indices tailored to vine growth and pathogens development, sub-grid topographic temperature corrections, and a Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to reduce redundancy among variables. Using European vineyards as a case study, we conduct a sensitivity analysis to assess the impact of each refinement on analogue identification. Each enhancement contributes significantly to the spatial distribution of selected analogues, with analogues shifting at the continental scale in some cases. Our results demonstrate the importance of using problem-specific indices, handling variable interdependence, and accounting for fine-scale climatic variability in climate analogue analyses. Though developed for viticulture, the methodology and insights are broadly applicable to other climate-sensitive systems, from agriculture to urban planning.