Comparative effects of climatic and non-climatic inputs on rice yields: New evidence from Bangladesh

This study investigates the combined influence of climatic and non-climatic factors on rice production in Bangladesh over the period 1990-2020, employing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model alongside Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) and Canonical Cointegrating Regression (CCR) techniques.The analysis incorporates two key climatic variables-temperature and precipitation-and three non-climatic determinants-urbanization, potassium fertilizer use, and the area under permanent crops.Empirical results reveal that higher average temperatures exert a significant long-term negative effect on rice yields, while precipitation and urbanization contribute positively to productivity.Conversely, potassium fertilizer application is associated with reduced yields, suggesting inefficiencies or imbalances in nutrient management.Expansion of permanent crop areas is found to enhance rice output in the long run, reflecting benefits from stable land-use practices.These findings underscore the need for targeted adaptation strategies, including the development of heat-tolerant rice varieties, improved water and nutrient management systems, and integrated urban-rural linkages to support agricultural productivity.The results not only provide evidence-based guidance for policymakers and agricultural stakeholders in Bangladesh but also offer transferable insights for other rice-dependent economies seeking to strengthen climate resilience and ensure sustainable food security.