Natural resource depletion and salinity-driven livelihood disruption as key drivers of climate-induced migration in coastal Bangladesh

Salinity intrusion is a critical environmental challenge in coastal Bangladesh, accelerating natural resource depletion (NRD) and disrupting local livelihoods, influencing migration dynamics. Despite its significant impact, the interconnections among these factors remain underexplored, particularly in the south-central coastal region. This study examines the relationships between salinity intrusion, NRD, and migration using household survey data collected from 217 respondents across four vulnerable unions in Galachipa Upazila. Employing descriptive statistics, Spearman’s rank correlation, and binary logistic regression, the analysis reveals that salinity intrusion severely impacts agriculture, water resources, and livelihoods, fostering widespread perceptions of environmental insecurity. While 78.3% of respondents reported ongoing migration within their communities and 72.4% perceived an increasing trend, only 18.4% expressed personal intentions to migrate, highlighting a gap between observed community patterns and individual decision-making. Correlation analysis reveals a strong association between migration tendency and salinity intrusion (r = 0.735, p < 0.01), while migration occurrence correlates moderately with NRD (r = 0.433, p < 0.01). Logistic regression identifies NRD (OR = 3.437, p = 0.001) and livelihood disruption (LD) (OR = 2.843, p = 0.020) as the only significant predictors of migration. Other perceived drivers, such as income loss and water scarcity, are not statistically significant in the adjusted model. These findings indicate that migration is primarily triggered when environmental stress directly undermines livelihood sustainability, underscoring the necessity for integrated coastal adaptation and resource management strategies. • Salinity intrusion severely affects agriculture and freshwater • Households with natural resource depletion are ∼3 times more likely to migrate • Natural resource depletion and livelihood disruption are key migration predictors • Salinity influences migration tendency, not actual migration