ABSTRACT NUMBER: ESOC2026A1082 DEVELOPMENT AND VALIDATION OF A PREDICTION MODEL FOR RISK OF ONSET, DISEASE PROGRESSION, AND SHORT-TERM PROGNOSIS IN ACUTE ISCHEMIC STROKE BASED ON SERUM TL1A

Abstract Background and aims Inflammatory response is involved in the pathogenesis and prognosis of acute ischemic stroke (AIS). Yet, effective biomarkers to predict its occurrence risk, disease progress, and clinical outcomes are scarce. Serum tumor necrosis factor ligand - related molecule 1A (TL1A), an inflammation mediator, has prognostic or predictive value in various inflammatory disorders. However, the correlation between TL1A and AIS is not clear. Methods This study enrolled 228 AIS patients (≤48h from onset) and 63 healthy controls. Serum TL1A was measured by ELISA. Baseline data, NIHSS scores (admission and 48h), and 90-day mRS (poor prognosis: mRS>2) were collected. Logistic regression identified independent factors for AIS occurrence, progression, and poor prognosis. Nomogram models were built and validated. Results Comparison of baseline characteristics showed serum TL1A levels were significantly higher in the AIS group than the control group. Increased TL1A levels were also independent risk factors for both disease progression and poor short - term prognosis. The nomogram prediction models for AIS occurrence, progression, and prognosis, developed based on TL1A and other variables, had AUC values of 0.84, 0.87, and 0.82 respectively in the training set, and AUC values in the validation set were all > 0.71. Both the Hosmer - Lemeshow test and DCA indicated good calibration of the models, suggesting clinical applicability and predictive efficacy. Conclusions Serum TL1A is an independent risk factor for AIS occurrence, progression, and poor short-term prognosis. The prediction model incorporating TL1A can effectively predict the related risks, indicating its potential as a novel biomarker. Conflict of interest Hailong Yu,Luhang Tao,Jinyue Wang,Yuping Li,Xin Chen,Jing Hang,Li Dong,Aipeng Hu,Yingzhu Chen,nothing to disclose