From Narratives to Valuation: Strategic Scenarios as Option Games

Merging scenario planning’s broad view of alternative futures with the analytical structure of option game models offers a powerful tool for strategic decision making—clarifying when to commit (game theory) to secure advantage and when to remain flexible (option theory) under uncertainty. This is especially relevant in sectors with high growth opportunities under competitive pressure—such as AI infrastructure, semiconductors, mining, and major acquisitions—where few players compete on scale, technology, and speed. A step-by-step scenario framework and two illustrative applications demonstrate its practical use. Strengthening narratives with quantifiable elements—such as growth options and competitive dynamics—shifts valuation from static cash-flow projections to strategic trajectories.