Quantifying the disproportionate climate risks of Indigenous People and Afro-Descendants in rural Honduras: using transport accessibility to basic services as a new metric for equity-centered climate risks

Abstract Indigenous people and afro-descendants (IPAD) groups in Honduras are impacted by climate and natural hazards disproportionately as they live in some of the most vulnerable areas of the country (such as the Atlantic region), are more dependent on agriculture and other natural resources such as forest and marine assets, and have limited resilience, low levels of infrastructure, and low capacity for institutional adaptation. These groups have the lowest rural accessibility levels to critical services such as health or education centers. At the national level, around 57 percent of the total population (5.4 million people out of nearly 9.1 million people) live within “golden hour” (60 minutes) access to a hospital, but this number drops to only 27 and 7 percent of the population in the Colón and La Mosquitia department, where a large number of IPAD reside. Climate disruptions to existing transport infrastructure hinder rural accessibility even further with rural communities becoming physically isolated during intense rain events. This paper aims to put rural accessibility to basic services at the center of equity-centered risk assessment, by using geospatial data, network analytics, and hazard mapping to investigate the nexus between climate risk and accessibility with a focus on rural communities and vulnerable groups such as indigenous people and afro-descendants in Honduras. The study found that the loss of rural accessibility represents a new metric beyond deaths, physical damages, and economic losses to evaluate climate and disaster risk and allows us to reveal the disproportionate social and development impacts on vulnerable groups such as the IPAD in Honduras. The analysis estimates that 300 thousand people lose 60-minute access to a hospital due to climate risks, with IPAD people making up 23 percent of those while representing 7 percent of total population. The paper concludes by identifying cost-effective risk mitigation measures with high social impact.