Tree‐based modelling of ecosystem services and climate‐adaptive silviculture strategies

Abstract Climate change‐driven disturbances are producing shifts in forest composition and productivity, which may reduce biodiversity as well as threaten the economic security and safety of nearby communities. Adaptive management is a potential solution for maintaining forest resources. We examine the effectiveness of adaptive management in boreal forests of Alaska, where the climate is warming rapidly and fire activity is increasing dramatically. We interviewed stakeholders and managers of the Tanana Valley State Forest (TVSF) of Alaska to elicit probable adaptive management actions. We then implemented these management strategies in an ecological process model to quantify the impacts of climate change and adaptive forest management on future availability of natural resources and ecosystem services. We found climate change may drive substantial decreases in both carbon sequestration (up to 28%) and high‐value timber (up to 43%) as well as shifts in wildlife habitat. At the landscape scale, low‐intensity management in every scenario currently under consideration may be insufficient to moderate climate impacts. However, specific fuel treatments could reduce the risk of intense fire at the local level for up to 22 years and may be targeted to protect valuable resources. Synthesis and applications . Our years‐long collaboration contributed to a robust scientific basis for the next TVSF management plan, which is currently under development. More broadly, our findings demonstrate the adaptive capacity of communities in sparsely managed climate vulnerable forests is likely insufficient to offset declines in desired ecosystem services. Community protection depends on effective climate change mitigation to reduce risks of fire and drought stress‐induced tree mortality.