Will It Survive? Evaluating the Effects of Damage and Silviculture on Tree Seedling Survival Using Multi‐State Models

, affected by white pine blister rust. Shade-intolerant species suffered less damage and had reduced mortality and higher recovery rates in the patch clearcut (1.2 ha), when compared to the shelterwood cut (40% of basal area removed). Shade-tolerant species benefitted from open light conditions, either because these conditions were appropriate for a quick establishment or because of nursery's full light conditions. These results highlight the importance of providing adequate environmental conditions for quick seedling establishment, which will affect seedlings' ability to withstand damage. Although multi-state models have limits, we propose that the study of 'damage history' can provide valuable insights in the context of plantations and could be expanded to other uses. Damage and recovery rates, especially, could be used as early indicators of plantation success, guiding the choices of silvicultural treatments.