Data-Driven Economic Feasibility Analysis of the Northern Sea Route: A Monte Carlo Simulation Approach

This study conducts a quantitative economic feasibility analysis of the Northern Sea Route (NSR) versus the Suez Canal Route (SCR) through a probabilistic approach. To overcome the limitations of previous studies that relied on static analyses, this research performs Monte Carlo simulations (10,000 iterations) based on a decade of empirical data (2015–2025). The analysis demonstrates that the NSR has a 95.47% probability of being more economical than the SCR, with average cost savings of $377,977 (18.2%). However, the NSR exhibits higher cost volatility (SD: $294,572 vs. SCR: $266,582), indicating greater uncertainty. The 95% Value at Risk (VaR) analysis reveals that even in extreme scenarios, NSR costs ($2,229,872) remain lower than SCR costs ($2,484,004), confirming its competitive advantage despite tail risks. Sensitivity analysis identifies NSR sailing speed as the dominant factor affecting the Generalized Transport Cost differential (22.78%), substantially exceeding icebreaker fees (7.91%) and fuel prices (4.32%). This underscores that ice conditions—through their impact on sailing speed—are the primary determinant of NSR economic viability. Model validation was performed using actual voyage data from the Istanbul Bridge’s October 2025 NSR transit. Transcending binary economic judgments, this study provides probabilistic risk quantification: the NSR is economically viable with a 95.5% probability. These findings offer empirical evidence for route-level probabilistic economic feasibility assessment and governmental Arctic-route policy formulation, contributing to both academic advancement in maritime economics and practical applications in Arctic shipping logistics.