The Moderating Role of Tariffs in the Trade–Economic Performance Nexus: Evidence from Quantile Analysis

This study examines the role of tariffs in the relationship between trade and economic performance using panel data from ten ASEAN countries over the period 2002–2024. Employing panel quantile regression, ordinary least squares (OLS), fixed effects (FE), and two-stage least squares (2SLS) estimations, the results consistently show that trade is positively associated with economic performance across specifications. In contrast, the direct association between tariffs and economic performance is generally negative or statistically insignificant. The key finding of this study lies in the positive and significant interaction between trade and tariffs. The results suggest that the negative association between tariffs and economic performance becomes weaker as trade volume increases, indicating a conditional and nonlinear relationship within the ASEAN sample. This pattern may reflect differences in economic structure, trade openness, and participation in global value chains, whereby more open economies may be better positioned to accommodate tariff-related distortions through broader trade networks and production structures. This suggests a conditional relationship within the ASEAN sample.<br/> These findings should be interpreted as sample-specific associations rather than general causal effects.