Direct and indirect effects of disturbance on net primary production in giant kelp forests

, did not explain significant variation in annual NPP despite substantial interannual variation in environmental conditions (e.g., temperature) and nutrient availability during the study period. A piecewise structural equation model explained 82% of the variation in annual NPP and revealed how disturbance from winter waves and sand burial of reef substrate indirectly influenced NPP via their direct and indirect effects on initial production potential and recruitment. Our results highlight the critical but understudied role of disturbance in altering production potential and recruitment to control ecosystem productivity, and the importance of long-term studies in gaining a mechanistic understanding of these processes under intensifying disturbance regimes.