Cross-Paper Validation: Empirical Multiplicative Composition of the AIACW Defense Stack

We test the AIACW programme's load-bearing claim that nine technical-paper defenses (P10-P18) compose multiplicatively into an integrated architecture. The IDSS executes a five-phase end-to-end AI-augmented incident lifecycle, calibrated from each paper's empirical anchors. N=20,000 incidents per condition. Bootstrap CI on observed/predicted multiplicative ratio: [0.40, 1.10] (consistent with multiplicative). Full-stack integrity 0.99915 (CI [0.99875, 0.99955]); 316x adversary-success reduction. Adaptive adversary concentrates 100% of effort at P15 (weakest single layer). Correlated-phase robustness analysis identifies multiplicative breakdown under k=1 correlation (4x degradation). Nine-layer extension saturates at integrity 1.00000. This paper is part of the AIACW (AI-Autonomous Cyber Weapons) ResearchProgramme, Wave 2 (papers P10-P20). Wave 1 (P1-P9) was deposited atpeer-review venues 2026-Q2 (NDSS, ACM CCS, IEEE S&P, USENIX Security,Oxford J. of Cybersecurity, ACM Computing Surveys). Wave 2 establishesthe empirical interior. P19 (cross-paper integration test) and P20(methodology meta-paper) provide programme-level validation anddocumentation. v2 (2026-05-06): Errata. Table I (per-phase bypass calibration) reformatted from single-column to two-column-spanning to fix overflow into adjacent text. No content or numerical changes; pure layout fix. Page count 5 → 6.

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Publication Details

Journal
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Published
2026-05-01
DOI
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20050289
Primary Topic
Information and Cyber Security
Type
article
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article

Cross-Paper Validation: Empirical Multiplicative Composition of the AIACW Defense Stack

Hangyu Mei
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Information and Cyber Security
article

Cross-Paper Validation: Empirical Multiplicative Composition of the AIACW Defense Stack

Hangyu Mei
article en

Abstract

We test the AIACW programme's load-bearing claim that nine technical-paper defenses (P10-P18) compose multiplicatively into an integrated architecture. The IDSS executes a five-phase end-to-end AI-augmented incident lifecycle, calibrated from each paper's empirical anchors. N=20,000 incidents per condition. Bootstrap CI on observed/predicted multiplicative ratio: [0.40, 1.10] (consistent with multiplicative). Full-stack integrity 0.99915 (CI [0.99875, 0.99955]); 316x adversary-success reduction. Adaptive adversary concentrates 100% of effort at P15 (weakest single layer). Correlated-phase robustness analysis identifies multiplicative breakdown under k=1 correlation (4x degradation). Nine-layer extension saturates at integrity 1.00000. This paper is part of the AIACW (AI-Autonomous Cyber Weapons) ResearchProgramme, Wave 2 (papers P10-P20). Wave 1 (P1-P9) was deposited atpeer-review venues 2026-Q2 (NDSS, ACM CCS, IEEE S&P, USENIX Security,Oxford J. of Cybersecurity, ACM Computing Surveys). Wave 2 establishesthe empirical interior. P19 (cross-paper integration test) and P20(methodology meta-paper) provide programme-level validation anddocumentation. v2 (2026-05-06): Errata. Table I (per-phase bypass calibration) reformatted from single-column to two-column-spanning to fix overflow into adjacent text. No content or numerical changes; pure layout fix. Page count 5 → 6.

Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Openalex Percentile: Top 4%
Information and Cyber Security
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