Design of Low Carbon Development Path for Urban Power System Based on System Dynamics: A Case Study of Jinan City, China

The continuous advancement of urbanization is usually accompanied by a steady increase in urban energy consumption. A complex multi-factor influence network is embedded behind this positive correlation. By taking Jinan as the research object, a system dynamics model is constructed, which considers economy, energy, environment and other factors related to the urban power system (UPS). With electricity supply and demand as the clue, the key factors affecting carbon emissions of the UPS are traced. Low-carbon development path for the UPS is also designed. 4 key factors are identified, and they are categorized into 3 regulatory factors: industrial structure, energy storage technology, energy consumption intensity. They are used to design development scenario. In the suitable scenario combination, the GDP of the tertiary sector grows by 7% annually, energy storage equipment prices drop by 7% annually, the electricity consumption per GDP in the secondary sector drop by 3.3% annually. The average carbon emission intensity of the UPS can be reduced to 251.52 kgCO 2 /10 4 CNY during 2021-2025. The final suggestion for the UPS low-carbon development path is put forward: "industrial structure→energy consumption intensity→energy storage technology". These conclusions can provide scientific guidance for the low-carbon development of the UPS. • Builds a system dynamics model (economy-energy-environment) for UPS. • Identifies 4 key factors (3 regulatory dimensions) for Jinan’s UPS. • The CO 2 emission intensity will be optimized to 254.56 kgCO 2 /10 4 CNY. • Proposes “industrial structure→energy intensity→storage tech” optimal path.