Математична модель для прогнозування ускладнень при гострій непрохідності тонкої кишки: ретроспективне дослідження

Acute small bowel obstruction (ASBO) is a critical condition in abdominal surgery with a high postoperative mortality rate, largely due to prolonged small bowel paresis and associated complications such as intestinal failure, bacterial translocation, and multiple organ failure. The objective: to develop a mathematical model to predict the likelihood of complications in patients with ASBO, based on various clinical and risk factors. Materials and methods. A retrospective examination of 52 male patients with ASBO was conducted. The study analysed factors such as the duration and type of ASBO, age, presence of comorbidities, and other pre- and intraoperative variables. Statistical methods, including multiple regression analysis, were used to create the predictive model. The research adhered to ethical guidelines and received approval from the Ethics Committee of Ivan Horbachevsky Ternopil National Medical University of MOH of Ukraine. Results. The study identified nine significant risk factors for ASBO complications, including age, duration of obstruction, type of obstruction, comorbidity, and the presence of peritonitis. A multiple regression model was created with a sensitivity of 97% and specificity of 96%, enabling the prediction of ASBO complications with high accuracy. Conclusions. The proposed mathematical model for predicting complications in ASBO can significantly aid in early diagnosis and the implementation of effective treatment and prevention strategies. This model has the potential to reduce postoperative complications and improve patient outcomes in ASBO cases.