Assessing Flood Vulnerability of Landfills in Southern New Jersey: Incorporating Climate Change and Extreme Weather Impacts

Southern New Jersey faces increasing flood risk due to several factors including rapid development, climate change, and aging infrastructure. This study evaluated the flood vulnerability of two municipal solid waste landfills located in Gloucester and Cumberland Counties. These sites are located near rural communities that rely on shallow groundwater for drinking water, which may be contaminated by floods. To assess these challenges, this research applies a hydrologic–hydraulic model to evaluate future flood vulnerability at the Cumberland County Improvement Authority (CCIA) landfill and the Gloucester County Solid Waste Complex (GCSWC) landfill. The method uses HEC-HMS and HEC-RAS 2D model simulations with climate-adjusted precipitation data derived from global climate models. Model performance was evaluated using Hurricane Ida (31 August–2 September 2021) by comparing HEC-RAS-simulated inundation extents with independently derived Sentinel-1 SAR flood maps generated in Google Earth Engine. Climate forcing was developed by deriving climate-adjusted 24 h precipitation–frequency (PF) design depths for 50-year and 100-year design storms under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) emissions pathways SSP2-4.5 (moderate) and SSP5-8.5 (high) for mid-century (2025–2050) and late-century (2070–2100) periods. These PF storm totals were converted to rainfall hyetographs using a fixed alternating variability method (AVM) temporal pattern within the coupled HEC-HMS/HEC-RAS modeling chain. Hazard amplification was primarily expressed through lateral inundation expansion and longer persistence of shallow flooding in low-relief operational zones, rather than uniform increases in peak depth across landfill interiors. Across both facilities, the landfill toe and adjacent access corridors were consistently identified as the most sensitive operational areas.