African Grain Self-Sufficiency Mitigates Transmission from Global Energy Markets: An Integrated TVP-VAR and Panel Regression Approach

This study examines how global energy and food price shocks affect local grain markets in Africa and evaluates the extent to which food self-sufficiency can mitigate these impacts. We investigate the influence of international factors—including world crude oil production, U.S. biofuel production, and international food and energy prices—on local grain prices in eight African countries using monthly data from January 2006 to September 2023. The analysis employs a two-stage methodology: first, a Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregression (TVP-VAR) extended joint connectedness approach to measure dynamic price spillovers, followed by a panel regression analysis to identify structural determinants. The findings reveal that the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine had diverse and significant impacts across African nations. Crucially, the results demonstrate that high grain self-sufficiency effectively buffers domestic prices against international energy market volatility. Additionally, it is confirmed that fluctuations in global energy prices primarily affect local food costs through the transportation cost channel.