A bite too much: Scenario-Based analysis of simulated plate waste behaviour at a hotel breakfast buffet

Plate waste at hotel breakfast buffets contributes substantially to food waste, yet interactions between guest characteristics, portioning decisions, and behavioural interventions remain understudied. This study conducts scenario analysis using the validated Establishment Diner agent-based model, simulating plate waste across 36 scenarios varying plate size, clientele structure, guest sustainability awareness, and buffet communication messages. The model captures guests' sequential decisions on initial portioning, refilling, and leftovers, driven by internal motives, social norms, and external constraints. Across the simulated scenarios, simulated plate waste outcomes range from 9.7 g to 277 g per guest per day. The analysis highlights how plate waste emerges from a sequence of behavioural decisions rather than from a single action. A behavioural pathway analysis of the simulated outputs indicates that interventions affecting one stage of the decision process may trigger compensatory responses that limit or even reverse their intended effects. While sustainability awareness and clientele structure shape baseline behavioural tendencies within the ABM, the simulations show that the effectiveness of interventions depends strongly on contextual conditions and guest profiles. In particular, communication messages interact with guest characteristics, producing different outcomes depending on sustainability awareness and clientele composition. These results underscore the value of scenario-based simulations for testing unintended compensatory dynamics and reactance in buffet settings that would be difficult to observe in field settings. The findings should be interpreted as simulation-based insights rather than empirical evidence and suggest that hospitality interventions should move beyond isolated nudges and instead consider how guest characteristics and behavioural pathways jointly influence waste outcomes.