The New Development Brokers: The Implications of China’s Development Agenda for the Rule of Law in a Post-USAID World

Abstract Reductions in overseas development assistance among OECD countries have created a significant vacuum for development financing – one increasingly being filled by China. Amid shifting global power dynamics, this article critically analyzes how China’s position as the world’s largest creditor may impact the rule of law in recipient states. The article examines changes in the rule over time in the three largest recipients of Chinese development financing between 2000 and 2021 – Russia, Venezuela, and Pakistan. To trace developments in the rule of law in each of these three countries, the article disaggregates data from the World Justice Project (WJP) Rule of Law Index. The article finds that Chinese development financing is not correlated with improvements in rule of law performance. Rather all countries under examination experienced some degree of rule of law backsliding, with shifts in core indicators of authoritarian legality.