Protest Emergence Socioeconomic Characteristics and the 1960s Sit-ins Predict the Black Lives Matter’s Formative Protest Period (2014–2017)

While many explanations in the literature propose socioeconomic and structural explanations for the rise of protest activity, historical dimensions are often overlooked. Less work undertakes quantitative analysis of these explanations in relation to what has been described by some as the biggest U.S. movement in history, Black Lives Matter (BLM). First, we determine whether socioeconomic and organizational factors, which researchers have used to study the sit-ins during the Civil Rights Movement, are useful for predicting BLM protests. Second, we examine whether counties that had sit-ins in 1960 were more likely to participate in BLM protests. We analyze 1386 BLM demonstrations between July 2014 and January 2017 alongside data from the Census Bureau and the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Our findings show that several factors that predicted sit-ins predict BLM protests. We also find evidence of an enduring legacy of sit-ins on BLM protests above and beyond socioeconomic predictors.